WWOTF7 - Agenda

Agenda - Proceedings available here

Who Will Own the Forest? 7 is a 2.5 day event, beginning with an evening reception on September 19, conference sessions and evening reception on September 20, and conference sessions on September 21.

Attendees who complete the full program can earn the following continuing education credits:

Foresters
11.5 CFE Contact Hours, Category 1 for Society of American Foresters. Please locate sign-in sheet and obtain certificate of attendance at end of event.

CPAs
11.5 CPE General Review Hours for Oregon Certified Public Accountants. Please locate sign-in sheet and obtain certificate of attendance at end of event. Check with your state rules to determine eligibility.

Appraisers
11.5 hours of continuing education credits for OR anad WA Appraiser Certification pending.

Oregon Bar
11.5 CLE General Credits approved.

Monday, September 19, 2011

5:00 – 8:00 PM: Opening Reception at WFC Discovery Museum

Enjoy cocktails, refreshments and hors d'oeuvres inside one of Portland's major tourist attractions, the World Forestry Center's Discovery Museum.

The opening reception has become a must-attend event, a great way to meet up with clients and old friends before the conference session starts the following day.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

8:00-9:00 AM: Registration

Session 1: Economic Drivers and Wood Demand

9:00-9:30 AM How Goes the Recovery? Tim Leach, US Bank
U.S. housing has typically led the country out of recessions, but despite low interest rates housing remains a drag on the economic recovery. Oil shocks, increases in commodity prices, and the struggles of Europe and Japan to overcome sovereign debt and high unemployment continue to roil the global economy. What does all of this bode for US economic growth, and export markets? How should investors position their portfolios in this volatile environment?

9:30-10:00 AM Timber Demand Drivers—Who’s Buying the Wood? Brendan Lowney, Forest Economic Advisors
Timberland owners are dependent on manufacturers for end markets. Given macroeconomic conditions, what is the demand and substitution outlook for end use markets such as lumber, panels, and engineered wood products? How will global competition impact US wood manufacturers and will domestic wood demand recover in the near term?

10:00-10:30 AM Wood and Fiber Demand Overseas: All Roads Lead to China Dennis Neilson, DANA Ltd.
The recession and collapse of the US housing industry has resulted in the worst downturn in the history of the lumber industry. In sharp contrast, demand from some overseas emerging markets, especially China, continues to outpace developed nations. How will this shift in wood demand and supply towards emerging markets impact timberland investors? How can timber growers position themselves to take advantage of China’s seemingly insatiable demand for wood?

10:30 – 11:00 AM Break

Session 2: Forest Industry Perspectives

11:00 AM-12:00 PM Panel Discussion: Perspectives on the Wood Industry Moderated by Paul Jannke, Forest Economic Advisors
Owning forestland used to mean cost-effective access to raw material for manufacturers. Now that much of the private forestlands held by listed companies have shifted to investors, how has this impacted the wood manufacturing sector? What trends do wood products manufacturers see for their industries and how will it impact timber demand? What are the risks for manufacturers of having less control over raw material supply? What are the benefits of not owning timberland? How do they see the role of biomass playing out?

• Allyn Ford, Roseburg Forest Products
• Mike Clutter, University of Georgia
• Daryl Swetlishoff, Raymond James
• Tom Beck, The Beck Group

12:00 – 1:15 PM Lunch in Plaza, Sponsored by Timberland Investment Resources

Session 3: Valuation and the Art of Performance Monitoring

1:15-2:45 PM Panel Discussion: NCREIF Timberland Index: Is There Room for Improvement?
Moderated by Vic Musselman, Musselman Appraisal & Forestry
In the world of forestland investing, the standard benchmark most commonly used by investors to measure their timberland portfolio’s return is the NCREIF Timberland Index. While the Index remains the standard benchmark for forestland valuations, the recession has heightened questions about its accuracy. What should and is being done to address some of these shortcomings, and how else does the valuation process need to evolve as the asset class itself evolves? What are investors looking for and can appraisals and the index meet these needs?

• Jim Rinehart, R&A Investment Forestry
• Bret Vicary, James W. Sewall
• Joyce Niggley, RMK Timberland
• Court Washburn, Hancock Timber Resource Group

2:45-3:15 PM The Discount Rate and Other Assumptions That Affect Value Roger Lord, Mason, Bruce & Girard
The discount rate is often discussed as if it is the only factor explaining current timberland pricing. Yet there are other assumptions—such as future log prices, growth projections and cost assumptions—which can make just as much difference in estimating discounted cash flow as the discount rate itself.

3:15-3:45 PM How Can Leverage Be Used to Enhance Returns? Scott Marshall, MetLife Timberland Finance Group
Leverage is an important tool that allows forestland managers to acquire or develop additional properties for investment. What trends are we seeing in the marketplace today? Why have some levered investments succeeded while others have run into difficulty? The decision to apply leverage and the successful execution over the life of an investment depends on a variety of factors and objectives. What macro, structural and management factors should be considered in order to determine when leverage makes sense?

3:45-4:15 PM Valuation Trends Daan Oranje, Stafford Timberland Group
With China driving strong demand in Pacific Rim timberland markets, parts of South America seemingly cruising through the credit crisis while others are suffering and few signs of a sustained recovery in the US, appraisers are continually reviewing various market forecasts and perceptions of risk. This discussion aims to shed some light on the varied approaches being adopted in Australia, New Zealand, South America and North America, and how these impact associated valuation trends.

4:15 – 7:00 PM: Evening Reception in Plaza

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Session 4: Maximizing Returns

8:30-9:30 AM Why Forest Management Matters
Forestland managers exercise a wide variety of options to increase timber yields, lower costs and risks, and improve cash flow. The right approach to forest management can produce better quality, faster growing species with higher value markets. This session will ask forest managers to present case studies on how they are maximizing returns for their investors through silvicultural, operational, as well as non-timber land transactions.

• Steve Smith, Timberland Investment Resources
• Sam Radcliffe, Prentiss & Carlisle Management Company

9:30-10:00 AM Contribution of Timber Growth to Total Return Reid Carter, Brookfield Asset Management
Timberland returns are driven by the biological tree growth, timber price changes due to macroeconomic factors and changes in land value. This presentation will examine the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the contribution of timber growth rates to timberland’s total returns.

10:00-10:30 AM The HBU Income Component of Return
Forestland returns are driven not just by appreciation of forestland value but also by income. Whilst income from harvested trees has declined due to the recession, income from HBU development and/or non-strategic land sales have increased. This presentation highlights some of the data and trends in transactions of this nature.

• John Rosenthal, Realty Marketing/NW
• Scott Dahlquist, Weyerhaeuser Real Estate Development Company
• Bill DeReu, Potlatch Corp.

10:30 – 11:00 AM Break

Session 5: Investor Perspectives

11:00-11:10 AM Timberland Investor Sentiment Survey: Increasing Activity on the Horizon Jim Yerges, KPMG
Results of a recent KPMG survey on Timberland Investor Sentiment. Who is investing in timberland, and why? The survey provides insight into market participant profiles, investment attitudes and certain investment underwriting criteria, as well as forward looking sentiment on timberlands as a distinct investment class.

11:10 AM-12:00 PM Panel Discussion: Investor Roundtable Moderated by Clark Binkley, International Forestry Investment Advisors
Investors seek forestlands as not only a potential source for higher returns but also as an inflation hedge and for diversification. Whilst forests have performed better than equities during the recession, there are questions about just how good forestland has been as an alternative asset class. How do those currently investing in forestland regard the performance of their timber portfolio, and what is the rationale by those who have not invested in forests? What are the portfolio implications of investments in emerging values such as bioenergy?

• Dillon Lorda, Pension Consulting Alliance
• Timothy Fritzinger, Flag Capital
• John Hershey, Oregon State Treasury
• Sue Goodman, APG Asset Management US
• Raphael Arndt, Future Fund

12:00 – 1:15 PM Lunch in Plaza

Session 6: Going Abroad

1:15-2:30 PM Identifying Opportunities Overseas
As the potential pool of investable property shrinks in developed markets, investors are seeking cheaper land, faster growth species and emerging markets abroad. North America remains the largest single-region category, with nearly a third of all funds focusing on the US and Canada. But investments focused in Latin America now account for over a quarter of funds, with Oceania and Asia following. What factors such as species, growth rates, land availability, infrastructure and markets appeal to investors in these regions?

• Fernando Abucham, Claritas Investimentos - Brazil
• Esben Brandi, The International Woodland Company A/S - Africa
• James Davies, New Forests - Southeast Asia

2:30-3:30 PM Panel Discussion: Structuring Investments in Foreign Timberlands Moderated by Victor Haley, Sutherland Asbill & Brennan
Each country presents unique challenges to foreign investors. This panel discussion will include business and legal perspectives on structuring investments in foreign timberlands, covering such issues as restrictions on foreign ownership of timberlands, tax considerations, managing country risk and choice of legal entity.

• Pedro M. Muñoz, Arias & Muñoz - Central America
• Vladimir Abreu, Tozzini Freire - Brazil
• Sam Farrands, Minter Ellison - Asia

Session 7: Carbon—Promises and Reality

3:30-3:45 PM Status of Carbon Markets Eron Bloomgarden, EKO Asset Management Partners
Who is buying and selling carbon credits from forestry, what real values are trading and what systems are sustaining the trading platforms?

3:45-4:30 PM Panel Discussion: Is There Really Gold in Them Thar Hills? Moderated by Ben Vitale, The Climate Trust
There has been plenty of talk about the potential for carbon credits to create new revenues for owners of forestland, but regulatory hurdles, environmental concerns, unclear climate policies, and slow financing have resulted in progress measured in fits and starts rather than leaps and bounds. How will California’s AB32 implementation, that includes forestry credits, affect momentum? How are leading organizations evaluating the costs, benefits, and timing of monetizing forest carbon revenue?

• Nick Martin, American Carbon Registry
• Kaarsten Dalby, The Forestland Group
• Mike Cafferata, Oregon Department of Forestry

4:30 PM Close

Stay an extra day Thursday, September 22, and attend the Forest Products Forum: Portland 2011










	Agenda - Proceedings available here Who Will Own the Forest? 7 is a 2.5 day event, beginning with an evening reception on September 19, conference sessions and evening reception on September 20, and conference sessions on September 21. Attendees who complete the full program can earn the following continuing education credits: Foresters 11.5 CFE Contact Hours, Category 1 for Society of American Foresters. Please locate sign-in sheet and obtain certificate of attendance at end of event. CPAs 11.5 CPE General Review Hours for Oregon Certified Public Accountants. Please locate sign-in sheet and obtain certificate of attendance at end of event. Check with your state rules to determine eligibility. Appraisers 11.5 hours of continuing education credits for OR anad WA Appraiser Certification pending. Oregon Bar 11.5 CLE General Credits approved. Monday, September 19, 2011 5:00 – 8:00 PM: Opening Reception at WFC Discovery Museum Enjoy cocktails, refreshments and hors d'oeuvres inside one of Portland's major tourist attractions, the World Forestry Center's Discovery Museum. The opening reception has become a must-attend event, a great way to meet up with clients and old friends before the conference session starts the following day. Tuesday, September 20, 2011 8:00-9:00 AM: Registration Session 1: Economic Drivers and Wood Demand 9:00-9:30 AM How Goes the Recovery? Tim Leach, US Bank U.S. housing has typically led the country out of recessions, but despite low interest rates housing remains a drag on the economic recovery. Oil shocks, increases in commodity prices, and the struggles of Europe and Japan to overcome sovereign debt and high unemployment continue to roil the global economy. What does all of this bode for US economic growth, and export markets? How should investors position their portfolios in this volatile environment? 9:30-10:00 AM Timber Demand Drivers—Who’s Buying the Wood? Brendan Lowney, Forest Economic Advisors Timberland owners are dependent on manufacturers for end markets. Given macroeconomic conditions, what is the demand and substitution outlook for end use markets such as lumber, panels, and engineered wood products? How will global competition impact US wood manufacturers and will domestic wood demand recover in the near term? 10:00-10:30 AM Wood and Fiber Demand Overseas: All Roads Lead to China Dennis Neilson, DANA Ltd. The recession and collapse of the US housing industry has resulted in the worst downturn in the history of the lumber industry. In sharp contrast, demand from some overseas emerging markets, especially China, continues to outpace developed nations. How will this shift in wood demand and supply towards emerging markets impact timberland investors? How can timber growers position themselves to take advantage of China’s seemingly insatiable demand for wood? 10:30 – 11:00 AM Break Session 2: Forest Industry Perspectives 11:00 AM-12:00 PM Panel Discussion: Perspectives on the Wood Industry Moderated by Paul Jannke, Forest Economic Advisors Owning forestland used to mean cost-effective access to raw material for manufacturers. Now that much of the private forestlands held by listed companies have shifted to investors, how has this impacted the wood manufacturing sector? What trends do wood products manufacturers see for their industries and how will it impact timber demand? What are the risks for manufacturers of having less control over raw material supply? What are the benefits of not owning timberland? How do they see the role of biomass playing out? • Allyn Ford, Roseburg Forest Products • Mike Clutter, University of Georgia • Daryl Swetlishoff, Raymond James • Tom Beck, The Beck Group 12:00 – 1:15 PM Lunch in Plaza, Sponsored by Timberland Investment Resources Session 3: Valuation and the Art of Performance Monitoring 1:15-2:45 PM Panel Discussion: NCREIF Timberland Index: Is There Room for Improvement? Moderated by Vic Musselman, Musselman Appraisal & Forestry In the world of forestland investing, the standard benchmark most commonly used by investors to measure their timberland portfolio’s return is the NCREIF Timberland Index. While the Index remains the standard benchmark for forestland valuations, the recession has heightened questions about its accuracy. What should and is being done to address some of these shortcomings, and how else does the valuation process need to evolve as the asset class itself evolves? What are investors looking for and can appraisals and the index meet these needs? • Jim Rinehart, R&A Investment Forestry • Bret Vicary, James W. Sewall • Joyce Niggley, RMK Timberland • Court Washburn, Hancock Timber Resource Group 2:45-3:15 PM The Discount Rate and Other Assumptions That Affect Value Roger Lord, Mason, Bruce & Girard The discount rate is often discussed as if it is the only factor explaining current timberland pricing. Yet there are other assumptions—such as future log prices, growth projections and cost assumptions—which can make just as much difference in estimating discounted cash flow as the discount rate itself. 3:15-3:45 PM How Can Leverage Be Used to Enhance Returns? Scott Marshall, MetLife Timberland Finance Group Leverage is an important tool that allows forestland managers to acquire or develop additional properties for investment. What trends are we seeing in the marketplace today? Why have some levered investments succeeded while others have run into difficulty? The decision to apply leverage and the successful execution over the life of an investment depends on a variety of factors and objectives. What macro, structural and management factors should be considered in order to determine when leverage makes sense? 3:45-4:15 PM Valuation Trends Daan Oranje, Stafford Timberland Group With China driving strong demand in Pacific Rim timberland markets, parts of South America seemingly cruising through the credit crisis while others are suffering and few signs of a sustained recovery in the US, appraisers are continually reviewing various market forecasts and perceptions of risk. This discussion aims to shed some light on the varied approaches being adopted in Australia, New Zealand, South America and North America, and how these impact associated valuation trends. 4:15 – 7:00 PM: Evening Reception in Plaza Wednesday, September 21, 2011 Session 4: Maximizing Returns 8:30-9:30 AM Why Forest Management Matters Forestland managers exercise a wide variety of options to increase timber yields, lower costs and risks, and improve cash flow. The right approach to forest management can produce better quality, faster growing species with higher value markets. This session will ask forest managers to present case studies on how they are maximizing returns for their investors through silvicultural, operational, as well as non-timber land transactions. • Steve Smith, Timberland Investment Resources • Sam Radcliffe, Prentiss & Carlisle Management Company 9:30-10:00 AM Contribution of Timber Growth to Total Return Reid Carter, Brookfield Asset Management Timberland returns are driven by the biological tree growth, timber price changes due to macroeconomic factors and changes in land value. This presentation will examine the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the contribution of timber growth rates to timberland’s total returns. 10:00-10:30 AM The HBU Income Component of Return Forestland returns are driven not just by appreciation of forestland value but also by income. Whilst income from harvested trees has declined due to the recession, income from HBU development and/or non-strategic land sales have increased. This presentation highlights some of the data and trends in transactions of this nature. • John Rosenthal, Realty Marketing/NW • Scott Dahlquist, Weyerhaeuser Real Estate Development Company • Bill DeReu, Potlatch Corp. 10:30 – 11:00 AM Break Session 5: Investor Perspectives 11:00-11:10 AM Timberland Investor Sentiment Survey: Increasing Activity on the Horizon Jim Yerges, KPMG Results of a recent KPMG survey on Timberland Investor Sentiment. Who is investing in timberland, and why? The survey provides insight into market participant profiles, investment attitudes and certain investment underwriting criteria, as well as forward looking sentiment on timberlands as a distinct investment class. 11:10 AM-12:00 PM Panel Discussion: Investor Roundtable Moderated by Clark Binkley, International Forestry Investment Advisors Investors seek forestlands as not only a potential source for higher returns but also as an inflation hedge and for diversification. Whilst forests have performed better than equities during the recession, there are questions about just how good forestland has been as an alternative asset class. How do those currently investing in forestland regard the performance of their timber portfolio, and what is the rationale by those who have not invested in forests? What are the portfolio implications of investments in emerging values such as bioenergy? • Dillon Lorda, Pension Consulting Alliance • Timothy Fritzinger, Flag Capital • John Hershey, Oregon State Treasury • Sue Goodman, APG Asset Management US • Raphael Arndt, Future Fund 12:00 – 1:15 PM Lunch in Plaza Session 6: Going Abroad 1:15-2:30 PM Identifying Opportunities Overseas As the potential pool of investable property shrinks in developed markets, investors are seeking cheaper land, faster growth species and emerging markets abroad. North America remains the largest single-region category, with nearly a third of all funds focusing on the US and Canada. But investments focused in Latin America now account for over a quarter of funds, with Oceania and Asia following. What factors such as species, growth rates, land availability, infrastructure and markets appeal to investors in these regions? • Fernando Abucham, Claritas Investimentos - Brazil • Esben Brandi, The International Woodland Company A/S - Africa • James Davies, New Forests - Southeast Asia 2:30-3:30 PM Panel Discussion: Structuring Investments in Foreign Timberlands Moderated by Victor Haley, Sutherland Asbill & Brennan Each country presents unique challenges to foreign investors. This panel discussion will include business and legal perspectives on structuring investments in foreign timberlands, covering such issues as restrictions on foreign ownership of timberlands, tax considerations, managing country risk and choice of legal entity. • Pedro M. Muñoz, Arias & Muñoz - Central America • Vladimir Abreu, Tozzini Freire - Brazil • Sam Farrands, Minter Ellison - Asia Session 7: Carbon—Promises and Reality 3:30-3:45 PM Status of Carbon Markets Eron Bloomgarden, EKO Asset Management Partners Who is buying and selling carbon credits from forestry, what real values are trading and what systems are sustaining the trading platforms? 3:45-4:30 PM Panel Discussion: Is There Really Gold in Them Thar Hills? Moderated by Ben Vitale, The Climate Trust There has been plenty of talk about the potential for carbon credits to create new revenues for owners of forestland, but regulatory hurdles, environmental concerns, unclear climate policies, and slow financing have resulted in progress measured in fits and starts rather than leaps and bounds. How will California’s AB32 implementation, that includes forestry credits, affect momentum? How are leading organizations evaluating the costs, benefits, and timing of monetizing forest carbon revenue? • Nick Martin, American Carbon Registry • Kaarsten Dalby, The Forestland Group • Mike Cafferata, Oregon Department of Forestry 4:30 PM Close Stay an extra day Thursday, September 22, and attend the Forest Products Forum: Portland 2011